119 Precision Fermentation Statistics

Updated Sep. 2023

Precision fermentation (PF) is a form of brewing that uses genetically modified microbes (like yeast) to produce functional ingredients (like bovine whey proteins).

This article presents the most surprising and important precision fermentation stats.

To collect these statistics:  We analyzed the methods and results of 63 peer-reviewed studies and industry reports across the past 10 years.

Meat and dairy analogs strongly dominate PF, so our focus was mainly—but not exclusively—on collecting stats related to these types of PF foods and companies.

On occasion, we provide a modicum of context for the stats; context amalgamated across said studies.

Let’s dive in.

Last updated: Sep. 7, 2023. See our disclaimer.

Top 12 Stats

Here are the top precision fermentation (PF) stats:

• Vegans may not be the top customers. Only 34.1% of vegans, vs. 49.3% of non-vegans, are likely to try PF alternatives.

• While it’s clear that PF uses less land than alternatives like farming, PF may emit more greenhouse gases and use more water than traditional farming methods.

• Americans are less likely to try PF foods than others. 93.4% of Indians said they’d be willing to try PF foods vs. 64.9% of Americans.

• Consumers (50%) are most worried about the chemicals in their PF foods, not their cost.

• More (88%) of customers are interested in simple and functional PF foods, like PF-derived protein powder, instead of complex foods like PF-derived milk (80%) or ice cream (70%).

• America dominates the PF space, with 37.8% of companies in this field located in the U.S. The next closest countries, like Belgium, top out at 6.8% of companies.

• 66.7% of PF companies focus predominantly or exclusively on dairy.

• The PF space is expected to create 700,000 jobs in the U.S. by 2030.

• PF proteins are expected to reach price/cost parity with conventional proteins around 2025.

• 61.7% of people would be more likely to consume PF foods if they were environmentally friendly; the top reason cited for their consumption.

• Ideal target customers for PF products include Hispanics, parents, and men.

• Farmers aren’t fully turned off by PF. A solid 51.1% of farmers said that PF was likely to bring about positive change within the wider food system.

Table of Contents

Consumer Stats

Familiarity

66% of survey participants stated they were familiar with plant-based meat alternatives, 37% were familiar with cultivated meat, and 29% were familiar with precision fermentation.

This shouldn’t be too surprising, as plant-based alternatives to common consumer foods have been in the news and on store shelves in larger numbers and for longer than alternatives made with precision fermentation.

Study Year: Study published March 7, 2023 (data collected: November 2022).
Country: Study participants were from the United States.
Sample: 2519 individuals, aged 18-73, weighted to the current US census on age, gender, income, race/ethnicity, and presence of children.
Source: https://www.hartman-group.com/documents/2112785198/download
Possible Conflicts of Interest: The research was sponsored by Perfect Day and Cargill.

Likelihood of Trying

A survey of 5054 individuals, across 5 countries (US, UK, Germany, India, and Brazil), found that 78.8% of participants were probably likely or definitely likely to try animal-free dairy cheese produced with precision fermentation technology.

This finding is largely consistent across multiple studies, in numerous countries, which we’ve read through over the past several years. Overall, people appear willing to try precision fermentation foods so consumer acceptance is—by itself—not a barrier to entry for companies in this field.

Study Year: Published June 24, 2021 (data collected Nov-Dec 2020).
Country: Study participants were from the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, India, and Brazil.
Sample: 5054 individuals. 1009 from the US, 1249 from the UK, 1051 from Germany, 825 from India, and 1020 from Brazil.
Source: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2021.678491/full
Possible Conflicts of Interest: Some study authors were associated with the animal-free dairy industry (Formo) and cellular agriculture industry (Cellular Agriculture Society). Funding was provided by Formo.

Replace or Supplement?

Among individuals (without a milk allergy) who said they are likely to purchase products made with precision fermentation ingredients:

• 35% would replace all or most conventional analogs with precision fermentation alternatives.

• 32% would regularly replace conventional analogs with precision fermentation alternatives.

• 14% would occasionally buy products containing ingredients made with precision fermentation.

• 19% would continue to buy the conventional/traditional products they currently use.

Overall, multiple studies and surveys showcase similar tendencies and results to the ones above. People are willing to try precision fermentation products and a good chunk (typically younger and environmentally-conscious consumers) are even willing to replace all conventional foods with them.

However, there is still a palpable hesitancy to go all in on a novel technology such as this among the wider population (especially older generations).

Education about the technology, its benefits to society, and its safety appears to go a long way towards removing this hesitancy but much work is left to be done on this front.

Study Year: Study published March 7, 2023 (data collected: November 2022).
Country: Study participants were from the United States.
Sample: 2519 individuals, aged 18-73, weighted to the current US census on age, gender, division, income, race/ethnicity, and presence of children.
Source: https://www.hartman-group.com/documents/2112785198/download
Possible Conflicts of Interest: The research was sponsored by Perfect Day and Cargill.

Men vs. Women

Men are more likely to try precision fermentation alternatives than women.

54.5% of men and 40.0% of women indicated they were willing to try yeast-derived alternatives to common foods, like dairy.

This may not be terribly surprising since men are often perceived as the gender more likely to take new risks. Surveys show that precision fermentation is still seen as risky by a sizable portion of the population unfamiliar with the technology. Perhaps this is one reason for this discrepancy between the genders.

Along the same lines women can be more conscientious shoppers, and thus may be more likely to critically consider a novel item’s potential downsides, a bit more so than men.

Study Year: Published April 26, 2023 (data collected May-July 2019)
Country: Canada (only British Columbia).
Sample: 115 survey respondents (78.3% women, 61.7% 35 years of age or older, 81.8% with at least some college education, 38.3% followed a vegan diet).
Source: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1127652/full
Possible Conflicts of Interest: The study’s authors declared no conflicts of interest.

Younger vs. Older

Age appears to play a role in a person’s openness to precision fermentation alternatives to traditional foods.

52.3% of people under the age of 35 are open to trying yeast-derived alternatives to foods like dairy. Only 38.0% of people 35 years of age or older are willing to do so.

Study Year: Published April 26, 2023 (data collected May-July 2019)
Country: Canada (only British Columbia).
Sample: 115 survey respondents (78.3% women, 61.7% 35 years of age or older, 81.8% with at least some college education, 38.3% followed a vegan diet).
Source: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1127652/full
Possible Conflicts of Interest: The study’s authors declared no conflicts of interest.

Gen Z vs. Millennials

Among Gen Z and Millennials familiar with precision fermentation and without a milk allergy, Gen Z is more likely to purchase a precision fermentation product with a description of the technology than without (74% are likely to purchase without a description vs. 84% with a description).

Millennials are less likely to purchase a precision fermentation product with a description of the technology than without a description of the technology (86% are likely to purchase without a description vs. 85% with a description).

Among those without a milk allergy, both Gen Z and Millennials agree that precision fermentation products need to be safe, taste good, and be healthy. However, Gen Z is far more likely to consider the price of precision fermentation products than Millennials. 51% of Gen Z respondents said that precision fermentation products need to be a good value vs. 43% of Millennials.

The price-sensitivity that Gen Z displays may be more related to their economic status compared to more economically established (older) generations. Researchers posit that as Gen Z comes of age and gains financial security that this difference between Gen Z and Millennials will narrow.

Study Year: Study published March 7, 2023 (data collected: November 2022).
Country: Study participants were from the United States.
Sample: 2519 individuals, aged 18-73, weighted to the current US census on age, gender, income, race/ethnicity, and presence of children.
Source: https://www.hartman-group.com/documents/2112785198/download
Possible Conflicts of Interest: The research was sponsored by Perfect Day and Cargill.

Millennials vs. Boomers

No disrespectful intent is meant with the use of the term Boomer. We are using the terminology used in the paper for accurate reference only.

84% of millennials are likely to purchase milk made with precision fermentation ingredients. Only 50% of boomers agree.

It should be noted that across multiple research studies, generationally-defined age by itself shouldn’t be seen as the factor that pushes someone for or against novel technologies, like precision fermentation-derived foods.

Rather, we consistently saw that plenty of older individuals were more than willing to try or buy precision fermentation foods based on qualitative data outputs in such studies. So the value system of an individual, not their age, appears to play a large role here.

Correlationally to this, older generations (in Western countries especially) grew up on traditional dairy and traditional values that relate to dairy-based foods. Recall those “Got Milk?” commercials, things like that existed decades before in American culture one way or another. “Supporting our farmers” is a big topic in many parts of the U.S.

However in countries which don’t have as strong of a cultural link to dairy products (like many in East Asia), or in countries whose people are seeking better or more nutrition through alternative means of production (like many developing nations), acceptance rates of novel foods such as those derived from precision fermentation are often higher than in the “developed” world (like the U.S. or U.K.)

Study Year: Study published March 7, 2023 (data collected: November 2022).
Country: Study participants were from the United States.
Sample: 2519 individuals, aged 18-73, weighted to the current US census on age, gender, income, race/ethnicity, and presence of children.
Source: https://www.hartman-group.com/documents/2112785198/download
Possible Conflicts of Interest: The research was sponsored by Perfect Day and Cargill.

Vegans vs. Non-Vegans

Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, vegans aren’t as enthused about precision fermentation dairy alternatives as non-vegans.

Only 34.1% of vegans are likely or very likely to try yeast-derived dairy alternatives (milk or ice cream) compared to 49.3% of non-vegans.

Vegans are not convinced that yeast-derived dairy alternatives are animal-free.

50.7% of non-vegans and 29.5% of vegans agree or strongly agree that yeast-derived agricultural products are “animal-free”.

(Related article: Is Animal Free Whey Vegan? What PETA & Surveys Say)

This is why many companies in the precision fermentation space have started to move away from calling their products “vegan” or “animal-free”; such as Perfect Day, which now uses “whey from fermentation” as one of their main alternative terms.

A group of precision fermentation companies is currently debating which terms the industry should use with respect to animal-free dairy. It could be a case of the cat being out of the bag. The most popular terms (like “vegan whey protein powder” and “animal-free whey protein”) could already be well-established in consumer psyche and plenty of companies and writers in the space continue to use these terms.

Related Topic:

Vegan Whey Protein & Animal-Free Whey: Terms to Know

Study Year: Published April 26, 2023 (data collected May-July 2019)
Country: Canada (only British Columbia).
Sample: 115 survey respondents (78.3% women, 61.7% 35 years of age or older, 81.8% with at least some college education, 38.3% followed a vegan diet).
Source: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1127652/full
Possible Conflicts of Interest: The study’s authors declared no conflicts of interest.

Diet vs. Diet

Of those individuals who are willing to purchase animal-free dairy cheese produced with precision fermentation:

• 65.2% identify as omnivores

• 25.3% identify as flexitarians/pescatarians

• 5.55% identify as vegetarians

• 1.83% identify as following a vegan diet

• 2.16% identify as following an “other diet”

Study Year: Published July 18, 2023 (data collected: 2020).
Country: Study participants were from the United Kingdom.
Sample: 1249 individuals.
Source: https://brill.com/view/journals/ifam/aop/article-10.22434-ifamr2022-0150/article-10.22434-ifamr2022-0150.xml
Possible Conflicts of Interest: Study funding was provided by an animal-free dairy company (Formo) and one author was from this company as well.

Country vs. Country

93.4% of people surveyed in India said they were probably or definitely willing to try animal-free dairy cheese produced with precision fermentation technology, followed by people in Brazil (92.0%), Germany (75.9%), UK (67.6%), and US (64.9%).

Researchers posited that one reason for such a high acceptance rate in India and Brazil vs the U.S. and U.K may be cultural links to traditional dairy. People in the U.S. and U.K. grow up on the idea of the importance of farmers, farming, the dairy industry, supporting farmers, and consuming lots of dairy products.

Individuals in countries without such strong cultural links to dairy farmers, or individuals in countries with a lack (quantitatively and/or qualitatively) of access to adequate dairy-related nutrition, may be more accepting of alternatives like precision fermentation.

Study Year: Published June 24, 2021 (data collected Nov-Dec 2020).
Country: Study participants were from the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, India, and Brazil.
Sample: 5054 individuals. 1009 from the US, 1249 from the UK, 1051 from Germany, 825 from India, and 1020 from Brazil.
Source: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2021.678491/full
Possible Conflicts of Interest: Some study authors were associated with the animal-free dairy industry (Formo) and cellular agriculture industry (Cellular Agriculture Society). Funding was provided by Formo.

Farmers vs. Non-Farmers

In terms of product acceptance (how appealing the product is to the consumer), 35.5% of farmers (vs. 47.2% of non-farmers) rated animal-free dairy as somewhat, quite, or very appealing.

55.5% of farmers (vs. 34% of non-farmers) rated animal-free dairy as somewhat, quite, or very unappealing.

8.8% of farmers (vs. 18.9% of non-farmers) rated the idea of animal-free dairy as neither appealing nor unappealing.

51.1% of farmers (vs. 75.5% of non-farmers) said that animal-free dairy was somewhat, quite, or very likely to bring about positive change within the wider food system.

40% of farmers (vs. 9.4% of non-farmers) said that animal-free dairy was somewhat, quite, or very unlikely to bring about positive change within the wider food system.

8.8% of farmers (vs, 15.1% of non-farmers) said that they didn’t think it would bring about positive nor negative change within the wider food system.

Study Year: Study published June 8, 2023 (data collected: July-August 2022).
Country: Study participants were from the United Kingdom.
Sample: 45 livestock farmers (25 male) and 53 non-farmers (26 male).
Source: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/12/9253
Possible Conflicts of Interest: The authors declared no conflicts of interest.

Reasons To Buy

Here are the top 3 reasons individuals say they would be more likely to consume yeast-derived dairy:

• 61.7% of individuals would be more likely to consume yeast-derived dairy if it provided environmental benefits.

• 60.0% of individuals would be more likely to consume yeast-derived dairy if it improved animal welfare.

• 49.6% of individuals would be more likely to consume yeast-derived dairy if it provided dietary or health benefits.

Cost savings (39.1%) and similar taste/texture to traditional dairy (33.4%) were less likely to be cited as a factor that would influence a person’s consumption of yeast-derived dairy.

Study Year: Published April 26, 2023 (data collected May-July 2019)
Country: Canada (only British Columbia).
Sample: 115 survey respondents (78.3% women, 61.7% 35 years of age or older, 81.8% with at least some college education, 38.3% followed a vegan diet).
Source: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1127652/full
Possible Conflicts of Interest: The study’s authors declared no conflicts of interest.

Reasons Not to Buy

Here are the top 3 reasons for what, if anything, would dissuade someone from purchasing synthetic (yeast-derived) milk:

• 50% worry about the chemicals and ingredients in the milk

• 43% are concerned it’s not natural

• 37% are worried about long-term side effects

8% stated nothing would put them off from buying synthetic milk.

Study Year: Study published in 2018 (data collected: July 16-20, likely in 2018).
Country: Study participants were from England, Scotland, and Wales.
Sample: 1061 adult individuals.
Source: https://harris-interactive.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2018/10/Synthetic-Milk-Grocer-Report-FINAL.pdf
Possible Conflicts of Interest: The research was sponsored by The Grocer.

Is Price an Issue?

Generally, ~50% of consumers are willing to pay more for products containing ingredients derived from precision fermentation.

Of those who expressed a likelihood to purchase such products, 60% are more willing to pay a premium, while 30% are willing to pay 25% or more vs. conventional alternatives.

Gen Z and Millennials are more likely to pay a premium for precision fermentation products than other generations.

Study Year: Study published March 7, 2023 (data collected: November 2022).
Country: Study participants were from the United States.
Sample: 2519 individuals, aged 18-73, weighted to the current US census on age, gender, division, income, race/ethnicity, and presence of children.
Source: https://www.hartman-group.com/documents/2112785198/download
Possible Conflicts of Interest: The research was sponsored by Perfect Day and Cargill.

Popular Products

Consumers appear ready to try simpler, more functional, precision fermentation products than more complex and broader categories of precision fermentation products.

Among consumers without a milk allergy, here’s the percent of consumers that are extremely, very, and somewhat likely to purchase the following products containing ingredients derived from precision fermentation:

• 88% – protein powder
• 88% – drinkable yogurt
• 85% – protein bars
• 83% – energy drinks
• 80% – milk
• 70% – ice cream

Study Year: Study published March 7, 2023 (data collected: November 2022).
Country: Study participants were from the United States.
Sample: 2519 individuals, aged 18-73, weighted to the current US census on age, gender, division, income, race/ethnicity, and presence of children.
Source: https://www.hartman-group.com/documents/2112785198/download
Possible Conflicts of Interest: The research was sponsored by Perfect Day and Cargill.

Impact of Education

More people are familiar with plant-based meat alternatives and cultivated meat than precision fermentation.

However, individuals educated about precision fermentation are far more likely to purchase a precision fermentation product.

Here’s the likelihood someone will purchase the following products with and without a simple description of the product:

• Plant-based alternatives to meat show a slight increase:
  • 58% (without a description) vs. 60% (with a description) are likely to purchase.

• Cultivated meat shows a slight decrease:
  • 48% (without a description) vs. 46% (with a description) are likely to purchase.

• Precision fermentation products show a large increase:
  • 43% (without a description) vs. 56% (with a description) are likely to purchase.

This data may simply reflect the novelty of the precision fermentation space and therefore a larger potential for an increase in purchase intent, even with minor education on the topic.

Contrast this with plant-based alternatives to meat, with which people are far more familiar with; there’s less room for improvement in purchase intent with additional education.

Study Year: Study published March 7, 2023 (data collected: November 2022).
Country: Study participants were from the United States.
Sample: 2519 individuals, aged 18-73, weighted to the current US census on age, gender, division, income, race/ethnicity, and presence of children.
Source: https://www.hartman-group.com/documents/2112785198/download
Possible Conflicts of Interest: The research was sponsored by Perfect Day and Cargill.

Ideal Target Customer

Based on currently available data, the following groups of individuals appear more likely to purchase precision fermentation products:

• Males
• Hispanics
• Parents with kids aged 0-12
• Gen Z and Millennials
• Urban dwellers
• Higher income
• Educated about precision fermentation

Study Year: Study published March 7, 2023 (data collected: November 2022).
Country: Study participants were from the United States.
Sample: 2519 individuals, aged 18-73, weighted to the current US census on age, gender, division, income, race/ethnicity, and presence of children.
Source: https://www.hartman-group.com/documents/2112785198/download
Possible Conflicts of Interest: The research was sponsored by Perfect Day and Cargill.

Environmental Concerns

37% of individuals believe that products made with ingredients derived from precision fermentation need to be better for the environment than conventional alternatives in order for them to consume such products on a regular basis.

We can call these 37% of individuals as sustainability-oriented consumers.

Among these sustainability-oriented consumers, their top environmental concerns are:

• 38% are worried about minimizing greenhouse gas emissions.

• 38% are worried about protecting natural habitats and wild species.

• 37% are worried about pollution.

Study Year: Study published March 7, 2023 (data collected: November 2022).
Country: Study participants were from the United States.
Sample: 2519 individuals, aged 18-73, weighted to the current US census on age, gender, division, income, race/ethnicity, and presence of children.
Source: https://www.hartman-group.com/documents/2112785198/download
Possible Conflicts of Interest: The research was sponsored by Perfect Day and Cargill.

Companies

New

How many precision fermentation startups have been launched every year?

Study Year: Published early 2023.
Source: https://gfi.org/resource/fermentation-state-of-the-industry-report/
These numbers include publicly announced companies only. They do not include companies in stealth mode. As such, these numbers are likely underestimates and may be revised upwards at a later time.

Total

How many precision fermentation companies are there in total?

There are at least 69 companies producing precision fermentation proteins across the world. 45 of these companies are focused exclusively on producing precision fermentation proteins while 24 others also produce alternative proteins via other non-traditional methods, for example via biomass fermentation.

Data analyzed on: September 5^th, 2023
Original Source: https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/
These numbers are conservative and include companies that have voluntarily self-reported to the Good Food Institute. They are specific to companies focused on precision-fermented proteins, like alternatives to dairy, meat, seafood, and eggs.

By Country

How many precision fermentation companies are in each country?

Of the 45 companies focused exclusively on the production of foods from precision fermentation:

17 are in the United States of America

3 are in Belgium

3 are in France

3 are in Israel

The rest (1-2 per country) are scattered across Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Denmark, Finland, Germany, India, Netherlands, New Zealand, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and the UK.

Data analyzed on: September 5^th, 2023
Original Source: https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/
These numbers are conservative and include companies that have voluntarily self-reported to the Good Food Institute. They are specific to companies focused on precision-fermented proteins, like alternatives to dairy, meat, seafood, and eggs.

By Product

What types of products do precision fermentation companies make?

Of the 45 companies focused exclusively on the production of foods from precision fermentation:

30 focus exclusively or predominantly on dairy, including the following 3 companies:

• Perfect Day
• ReMilk
• Imagindairy

5 focus exclusively or predominantly on eggs:

• The EVERY company
• OTRO
• Fumi Ingredients
• Onego Bio
• Eggmented Reality

2 companies focus exclusively on meat:

• Balletic Foods
• Fybraworks Foods

2 companies focus exclusively on seafood:

• Triton Algae Innovations
• Liven Proteins Corp.

2 companies focus on meat and seafood:

• Botany AI, Inc.
• Paleo

2 companies focus on meat, eggs, and dairy:

• Wild microbes
• Shiru, Inc

1 company focuses on meat and dairy:

• Yali Bio

1 company focuses on pet foods:

• Bond Pet Foods

Data analyzed on: September 5^th, 2023
Original Source: https://gfi.org/resource/alternative-protein-company-database/
These numbers are conservative and include companies that have voluntarily self-reported to the Good Food Institute. They are specific to companies focused on precision-fermented proteins, like alternatives to dairy, meat, seafood, and eggs.

Revenue & Economics

Investment Trends

How much money is invested into precision fermentation around the world every year?

Study Year: Published early 2023.
Source: https://gfi.org/resource/fermentation-state-of-the-industry-report/
This data excludes companies that are involved in fermentation but not as their core business. Excludes companies that use fermentation to create products other than analogs to conventional meat, egg, and dairy. Excludes companies involved in plant molecular farming. Invested capital includes: accelerator and incubator funding, angel funding, seed funding, equity and product crowdfunding, early-stage venture capital, late-stage venture capital, private equity growth/expansion, capitalization, corporate venture, joint venture, convertible debt, and general debt completed deals. Invested capital is a conservative estimate, as it includes only companies with disclosed deals and deal sizes.

Potential Current Market Size

The potential current market size for precision fermentation products is over 90,000,000 U.S. adults.

Study Year: Study published March 7, 2023 (data collected: November 2022).
Source: https://www.hartman-group.com/documents/2112785198/download
Possible Conflicts of Interest: This research was sponsored by Perfect Day and Cargill.

As of 2023, the global precision fermentation market size is estimated at $2.44-$2.8 billion USD.

Source: https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5692212/precision-fermentation-market-share-size; https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/precision-fermentation-market-30824914.html

Predicted Market Size

Products made with precision fermentation have a potential market size of 132,000,000 adult U.S. consumers by 2027.

Study Year: Study published March 7, 2023 (data collected: November 2022).
Source: https://www.hartman-group.com/documents/2112785198/download
Possible Conflicts of Interest: This research was sponsored by Perfect Day and Cargill.

The global precision fermentation market size is expected to reach $36.3-$73.76 billion USD by 2030-2032.

Source: https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/5692212/precision-fermentation-market-share-size ; https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/precision-fermentation-market-30824914.html

Projected Market Growth Rate

Starting in 2021, the precision fermentation market is projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% over the next 5 years, growing by 70%.

Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9995161/

Predicted Job Creation

By 2030, the U.S. precision fermentation industry is expected to create at least 700,000 jobs. By 2035, this number is expected to rise up to 1,000,000.

Study Year: September 2019
Source: RethinkX
Possible Conflicts of Interest: Study author (RethinkX) is funded with grants from entities dedicated to exploring the impact of disruptive technology.

Predicted Demand

By 2030, almost 90% of dairy protein demand may come from precision fermentation alternatives to traditional dairy. If this model is correct, it could lead to wide-scale bankruptcies in the traditional dairy industry; barring large bailouts, subsidies, and legislative actions.

Precision fermentation-enabled beef products may replace 55% of the traditional beef market by 2030 as well.

Study Year: September 2019
Country focus: United States of America
Source: RethinkX
Possible Conflicts of Interest: Study author (RethinkX) is funded with grants from entities dedicated to exploring the impact of disruptive technology.

It should be noted that not all models agree with the prior assessment about dairy proteins. Another model posits that, by 2030, precision fermentation dairy will account for 2.0%-50% of the market, depending on how various financial, legal, and cultural trends progress from here on out.

Study Year: 2018-2019
Source: https://www.tetrapak.com/content/dam/tetrapak/publicweb/gb/en/about/future-dairy-exec-summary.pdf
Country focus: UK, US, China, and India
Possible Conflicts of Interest: N/A

Predicted Retail Costs

In the coming decade, precision fermentation products will cost 50-80% less than the animal-derived (conventional) analogs they replace.

Study Year: September 2019
Source: RethinkX
Possible Conflicts of Interest: Study author (RethinkX) is funded with grants from entities dedicated to exploring the impact of disruptive technology.

Consumer Price Sensitivity

Scientific modeling predicts that consumers are very price sensitive to animal-free dairy cheese produced with precision fermentation. When comparing products of equal weight:

• When priced at parity with premium conventional cheese, animal-free dairy cheese captures 33.2% of the cheese market share.

• When priced 24.0% higher than premium conventional cheese, animal-free dairy cheese captures 22.4% of market share.

• When priced 100% higher than premium conventional cheese, animal-free dairy cheese captures only 2.0% of market share.

Study Year: Published July 18, 2023 (data collected: 2020).
Source: https://brill.com/view/journals/ifam/aop/article-10.22434-ifamr2022-0150/article-10.22434-ifamr2022-0150.xml
Possible Conflicts of Interest: Study funding was provided by an animal-free dairy company (Formo) and one author was from this company as well.

Production Value & Yield

Scientists model that yeast can produce recombinant milk protein with a yield of about 10-30 grams of protein per liter.

Sources: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10105885/ ; https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.4161/bbug.1.2.10484

One scientific model suggests that bacteria (E. coli) can produce recombinant milk proteins (bovine alpha lactalbumin) with a value of 21.8 times greater than the cost of the initial starting material.

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/srep36421

Efficiency vs. Cattle

Cow protein production feedstock efficiency is rated at 4% while precision fermentation protein production feedstock efficiency is rated at 40%-80%.

Study Year: September 2019
Source: RethinkX
Possible Conflicts of Interest: Study author (RethinkX) is funded with grants from entities dedicated to exploring the impact of disruptive technology.

Cost Per Molecule

The cost of producing one molecule via precision fermentation was $1,000,000 per kilogram in 2000 and $100 per kilogram in 2019.

The cost for precision fermentation-enabled dairy protein is expected to reach (or fall below) $10 per kilogram by 2025. After this point, the cost per kilo of protein from precision fermentation may pose a strong challenge (financially-speaking) to traditional sources of protein like livestock farming.

By 2035, precision fermentation protein is expected to cost $1 per kilogram.

Study Year: September 2019
Source: RethinkX
Possible Conflicts of Interest: Study author (RethinkX) is funded with grants from entities dedicated to exploring the impact of disruptive technology.

Environmental Stats

GHG Emissions

The production of precision fermentation whey protein results in emissions of 2.71 kg CO2e per kg of protein.

Comparatively, the production of yeast-derived whey protein produces 85%-97% fewer greenhouse gas emissions vs. the production of comparable conventional (bovine-derived) dairy proteins.

The top 3 factors most responsible for the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with yeast-derived whey are:

• The utilities (gas and electricity) used in the protein production process, which accounts for 39.9% of this product’s GHG emissions.

• Protein development (fermentation) is responsible for another 24.7% of the GHG emissions.

• The cleaning processes account for another 20.4% of GHG emissions.

Study Year: Published February 9, 2021
Source: https://resources.perfectdayfoods.com/articles/lca-executive-summary
Possible Conflicts of Interest: This study was commissioned by Perfect Day on its own product, technologies, and methods of manufacture using statistical methods and estimates that should not be universally extrapolated to all yeast-derived whey protein products.

A dairy industry study modeled the GHG emissions of yeast-derived whey based on its production in four locations around the world (New Zealand, Germany, United States – Alabama, and Australia – Victoria). It then compared that to the GHG emissions from conventional dairy protein production in New Zealand.

New Zealand is known for its relatively sustainable production of dairy protein thanks to its renewable sources of electricity.

It goes without saying: the environmental costs associated with electricity, water, and production material vary depending on location.

The overall conclusion of this study was that the net GHG emission impact of dairy proteins produced in New Zealand was largely the same or potentially better than that for yeast-derived whey protein produced in Germany, the U.S., and Australia (all depending on the wide number of scenarios modeled).

Only the yeast-derived whey protein produced in New Zealand had a consistently smaller GHG emission impact than the dairy proteins produced in New Zealand.

Study Year: Published on August 26, 2022
Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11367-022-02087-0
Possible Conflicts of Interest: This study was funded by Fonterra Research and Development Centre. Two authors are from the Fonterra Research and Development Centre. The Fonterra Research and Development Centre is a New Zealand-based dairy industry entity.

Other research focused on the environmental impact of animal-free (yeast-derived) milk.

In comparison to conventionally produced milk, the production of yeast-derived milk involves 35%-65% lower GHG emissions and 24-84% lower energy use.

Study Year: Published June 16, 2015
Source: http://www.animalfreemilk.com/files/PD-LCA.pdf
Possible Conflicts of Interest: This study was commissioned by Perfect Day on its own product, technologies, and methods of manufacture using statistical methods and estimates that should not be universally extrapolated to all yeast-derived milk products. Also note that as this study was from 2015, Perfect Day’s procedures may have changed considerably since then.

Water Footprint

According to one model, precision fermentation products require 87% less water than conventional cattle-derived products.

Study Year: September 2019
Source: RethinkX
Possible Conflicts of Interest: Study author (RethinkX) is funded with grants from entities dedicated to exploring the impact of disruptive technology.

A dairy industry study modeled the water scarcity footprint (WSF) of yeast-derived whey based on its production in four locations around the world (New Zealand, Germany, United States – Alabama, and Australia – Victoria). It then compared that to the WSF from conventional dairy protein production in New Zealand.

New Zealand is known for its relatively sustainable production of dairy protein thanks to its abundant rainfall.

It goes without saying: the environmental costs associated with electricity, water, and production material use vary depending on location.

According to this study, the net WSF of dairy proteins produced in New Zealand was largely the same or potentially better than that for yeast-derived whey protein produce in Germany, Australia, and New Zealand (all depending on the wide number of scenarios modeled).

Only the yeast-derived whey protein produced in the U.S. had a consistently smaller WSF impact than the dairy proteins produced in New Zealand.

Study Year: Published on August 26, 2022
Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11367-022-02087-0
Possible Conflicts of Interest: This study was funded by Fonterra Research and Development Centre. Two authors are from the Fonterra Research and Development Centre. The Fonterra Research and Development Centre is a New Zealand-based dairy industry entity.

Other research focused on the ways by which the production of animal-free (yeast-derived) milk impacts water use.

According to one study: in comparison to conventionally produced milk, the production of yeast-derived milk requires 98% less water.

Study Year: Published June 16, 2015
Source: http://www.animalfreemilk.com/files/PD-LCA.pdf
Possible Conflicts of Interest: This study was commissioned by Perfect Day on its own product, technologies, and methods of manufacture using statistical methods and estimates that should not be universally extrapolated to all yeast-derived milk products. Also note that as this study was from 2015, Perfect Day’s procedures may have changed considerably since then.

Land Use

According to one model, precision fermentation requires about 95% less land for the production of protein vs. cattle. This includes land for feed and livestock.

Study Year: September 2019
Source: RethinkX
Possible Conflicts of Interest: Study author (RethinkX) is funded with grants from entities dedicated to exploring the impact of disruptive technology.

Another study examined the specifics of the production of yeast-derived milk.

According to this one study: in comparison to conventionally produced milk, the production of yeast-derived milk requires 77%-91% less land.

Study Year: Published June 16, 2015
Source: http://www.animalfreemilk.com/files/PD-LCA.pdf
Possible Conflicts of Interest: This study was commissioned by Perfect Day on its own product, technologies, and methods of manufacture using statistical methods and estimates that should not be universally extrapolated to all yeast-derived milk products. Also note that as this study was from 2015, Perfect Day’s procedures may have changed considerably since then.